Politics · Australia
Next Newspoll: Primary Vote #1
Percentages are the market’s forecast of each party’s primary vote — not a chance of winning. Every share pays 1¢ per percentage point of the final result: back a party Higher or Lower than its forecast and profit on the gap, not win-or-lose. How it works
Rules
*What primary vote will each party record in the next Newspoll?*
Settles on the national first-preference voting-intention figures of the next Newspoll federal survey published by The Australian after this market opened. Trading is halted as soon as publication is confirmed, then every position settles on the published figures, normalised by largest remainder to sum to exactly 100%.
Party mapping mirrors the election market: Coalition = the Liberal–National Coalition figure; Labor = ALP; Greens = Australian Greens; One Nation = Pauline Hanson’s One Nation; Other = 100 minus the sum of the above (combining any separately-listed remainder).
Each Higher share pays $0.01 × the party’s published percentage; each Lower share pays $0.01 × (100 − the percentage). The close time shown on this market is a deadline, not a schedule: if no qualifying Newspoll has been published when it arrives, the market is called off and every position refunds at cost.
Opening prices are seeded from the election market’s forecast — the market starts where the crowd left off.
Next Newspoll: Primary Vote #1
One Nation · Higher ↑
One Nation forecast: 30.1%
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