Politics · Australia
Australian Federal Election: Primary Vote
Percentages are the market’s forecast of each party’s primary vote — not a chance of winning. Every share pays 1¢ per percentage point of the final result: back a party Higher or Lower than its forecast and profit on the gap, not win-or-lose. How it works
Rules
*What share of first preferences will each party win at the next federal election for the House of Representatives?*
Settles on the national first-preference (primary) vote percentages for the House of Representatives at the next Australian federal election, as published by the Australian Electoral Commission (results.aec.gov.au) once the national count is final or further counting can no longer change any party’s figure by 0.05pp.
Party mapping: Coalition = Liberal + Liberal National (QLD) + Nationals + Country Liberal (NT); Labor = ALP; Greens = Australian Greens; One Nation = Pauline Hanson’s One Nation; Other = 100 minus the sum of the above.
Each Yes share pays $0.01 × the party’s final percentage; each No share pays $0.01 × (100 − the percentage). Trading stops when polls close at 6:00pm AEST on election day. If no election occurs by the close date, the market is extended, not voided.
Australian Federal Election: Primary Vote
Labor · Higher ↑
Labor forecast: 30.3%
Play money — no real money, ever. By trading you accept the terms.
Earn $5,000 play money per mate
Up to 10 mates. They start with $10,000 either way — you get the bragging rights and the bankroll.
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